Lock-in accumulators are a great way to make money from matched betting. There are several methods to making money from accumulators but the one that will guarantee you a profit every time is called the lock-in method. The lock-in method will ensure that you make a profit from your accumulator every time. Other methods usually involve taking some risk and you aren’t necessarily guaranteeing a profit by time the accumulator has finished. The lock-in method is different and uses a better lay staking plan so that you will walk away with a profit no matter what happens. One team you could let you down, two teams could let you down or all teams could win and you will still win a profit no matter what.
Oddsmonkey has a great piece of matched betting software called the accafinder which scans the markets for the most profitable accumulator bets for you place as soon as you click the refresh button. Upon clicking the accumulator you will see a variety of boxes to select at the bottom of the accumulator. You must click the lock-in method as pictured below.
I have highlighted in the red box the lock-in button. When doing accumulators, I would recommend clicking this box as it will ensure you make a profit at the end of the accumulator.
In the picture above, you can see two green numbers on the bottom right. Underneath “QL” it says £4.26 in green; this means no matter what, you will earn approximately £4.26 provided the odds stay the same from this accumulator.
By doing the other methods you are more likely to take greater risk as well as potentially suffer a loss on your accumulator. If you do the “Lay at start method” for the same accumulator above, this is what the accafinder tells us below.
Lay at start
So by clicking the “lay at start” button you can now see red numbers which is never a good thing when doing matched betting. The “QL” box now reads £-21.51 which means you can expect to lose £21.51 from this accumulator via the lay at start method.
Also, if 1 team loses you will lose £21.51 and if two teams lose you will lose £9.26. For every other possibility you will earn some money. From my own experience with accumulators (and I have placed over 1,500 lock-in accumulators), I have never seen all 5 teams lose so it is very unlikely that will happen. On the image above, you will see percentages. These percentages represent the chance of that number of teams losing. So you can see it is most likely one team will let you down with 40.59% and cause you to lose £21.51. The least likely is all 5 teams losing with just 0.06% chance of happening.
It is this reason why I wouldn’t touch lay at start accumulators as the variance is too spread and can cause you to lose a lot of money if you place a lot of these types of accumulators. Instead I would stick to the “lock-in” method so that you are making money for your efforts.
When placing a lock in accumulator bet, you usually have to bet on 5 teams and they must kick off at different times. The reason for this is because you can only lay one team off at a time. Unlike normal matched betting where it doesn’t matter, lock-in accumulators are different. Each football team must have a different kick-off time so that you can lay the next selection. The accafinder also is very useful because you can easily click the result of the games and it will then automatically calculate your lay stake for the next game.
Using the same example earlier in this article as an example, I will walk you through the different scenarios so you can see how to profit from lock-in accumulators and make money from them.
All teams win
If a team wins a football game which you have backed in your accumulator, you should click the “W” button in green. This will ensure the lay stake for next game is calculated correctly and will ensure you achieve the green profit figure come the end of the accumulator.
All teams win
Based on this example, you would have £100 in your Ladbrokes account and then you will have lost £7.78 from Tottenham winning, £4.38 from Napoli winning, £20.90 from Guingamp from winning, £17.83 from Panathinaikos winning and £19.69 from Chelsea winning. This is £70.58 in total liabilities from the exchanges.
Therefore, £100.00 – £70.58 = £29.42. Then we need to deduct our back stake at Ladbrokes which is £25.00 so £29.42 – £25.00 = £4.42. So we will have made £4.42 overall based on these figures.
4 Teams win, 1 team loses or draws
So if a team loses or draws their game in your accumulator, you must select the red “L” button so that it goes down that the team failed to win. Remember, the lay bet on the exchange means “the team will not win” this does include the draw! In the above example, I have chosen that Tottenham failed to beat West Ham but it could be any team but all the other teams managed to win their games.
4 teams win, 1 team loses or draws
Because one team failed to win and the others won, this means we will get a refund from Ladbrokes in the form of a free bet to our stake. So we will get a £25.00 free bet from this scenario. This is how we manage to make a profit.
So as Tottenham failed to win, we will keep 98% of the lay stake. This is 98% of £24.32 which is £23.83. Then we deduct our liabilities so £0.81 from Napoli winning, £4.44 from Guingamp winning, £4.13 from Panathinakios winning and £4.92 from Chelsea winning. This is £14.30 in total.
Therefore, £23.83 minus £14.30 is £9.53. All we need to do now is add the winnings from the free bet and deduct our back stake at Ladbrokes. Assuming we keep 80% of the free bet amount, we will keep 80% of £25.00 which is £20.00. Then our Ladbrokes back stake is £25.00. So £9.53 + £20.00 – £25.00 = £4.53. This means if any one team fails to win you can expect to make £4.53.
You will also see this matches the figure exactly on the bottom right of the accumulator above at £4.53 in green.
Two teams fail to win
In the above example, we have chosen Tottenham and Napoli as both failing to win their games. As soon as two teams lose in your accumulator, you have made your profit and the accumulator is done with. There is no need to lay any more games as the money is already made and any further laying will carry risk and could potentially cost you money. This is the easiest scenario for you as it involves the least amount of work compared with all teams winning or doing a free bet.
Two teams fail to win
Because both games won at Smarkets, we will keep 98% of the lay stakes. So 98% of £24.32 = £23.83 and 98% of £5.80 = £5.68.
Then we add these together and deduct our Ladbrokes back stake to work out our profit. So £23.83 + £5.68 – £25.00 = £4.51. So we will make £4.51 if two of the teams fail to win based on the figures.
The lock-in accumulator method of doing accumulators is the most profitable way of doing accumulators in matched betting. It carries the least risk and rewards you with a profit every time you place an accumulator bet. It really is as simple as remembering when the games kick off and you can setup the email alerts by clicking this option at the bottom of your accumulator like below.
By selecting this option you will receive a reminder when a game is about to kick off. Also once you have placed your accumulator, don’t forget to click the “Save” button in the bottom right so that you can find it on the “My Accas” tab for reference.
Making money from the lock in method is easy:
- If all teams win, you have won and your money will be in the bookmaker.
- If one team fails to win, you will receive a free bet refund and the profit from the free bet will exceed your losses leaving you with a profit.
- If two teams fail to win, you have made your money at the exchange and you are done.
If you are interested in reading in more detail, try my Oddsmonkey review and Smarkets review today.
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